2019 United Kingdom Peterborough by-election
Contents
Reason of Cause
Previous Election Results
Local Election in Peterborough Council
Results of 2019 European Parliament Election in Peterborough Council Area
Final Results
Reason of Cause
Fiona Onasanya MP - former Labour - was elected over the incumbent Conservative in 2017 General Election. Few weeks after that, she drove her car in Thorney of Cambridgeshire with -in 41mph or 66km/h speed, which is a zone that allows the speed of the car until 30mph or 48km/h. Her office send a message to police that 'Aleks Antipow' was who did that offence. However, the police soon discovered that he is who staying in Russia and as the cause, she was in trouble by perverting the course of justice. She was firstly found with no crime, but on the retrial ordered by Nicholas Hilliard - the London Recorder and QC(Queen's counsel), held in December 2018, Fiona was found guilty and got a sentense of three-month prisonment. She said she herself was in a situation alike several key biblical figures and declared to appeal. Unfortunately for the sitting MP, her appeal was defeated or rejected to the court in March 5th. As the result, the recall-petition was called in from Marth 19th until May 5th of 2019. It needed signatures of at least 10% of the electorates - which was 6,967, but the final tally showed 19,261 signatures were signed-in - which is almost three-times more then the minimum cut-line. This situation was the first ever MP removal in United Kingdom history and the by-election was called in June 6th.
Previous Election Results
Turnout & Validout
| Electorate | 71,522 (-1,008) |
|---|---|
| Total Votes | 47,883 (+631) |
| Turnout | 66.95% (+1.80%p) |
| Valid Votes | 47,738 (+663) |
| Validout | 99.70% (+0.07%p) |
Results By Candidates & Parties
| Candidate | Party | Political Position | Votes | Vote Share | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiona Onasanya | Labour | Center-Left | 22,950 | 48.07% | +12.47%p |
| Stewart Jackson (I) | Conservaties | Center-Right | 22,343 | 46.80% | +7.11%p |
| Rebeka Sellick | Liberal Democrats | Lean-Left | 1,597 | 3.34% | -0.43%p |
| Fiona Radic | Greens | Left-wing | 848 | 1.78% | -0.81%p |
=Labour Gain from Conservaties
=Swing of 3.39% from Conservaties to Labour
*(I) stands for 'Incumbent'
The previous election, so the 2017 General Election for electing Peterborough MP ended in a Labour gain, with Fiona Onasanya as their candidate. There was a big swing for both Labour and Conservatives beacuse of the disappearance of UKIP candidate, who got 15.90% of the votes in 2015. Even though Stewart Jackson - the incumbent MP - increased his support, he had to lose his seat because of the situation Labour Surging or gaining support from UKIP more then the Tories around England & Wales. Oppositely, the smaller major parties - Lib Dems & Greens losed a bit of the votes.
Results of 2019 Local Elections in Peterborough Council
Turnout & Validout
| Electorate | 131,825 (+9,067) |
|---|---|
| Total Votes | 44,265 (-27,744) |
| Turnout | 33.58% (-25.08%p) |
| Valid Votes | 43,997 (-27,606) |
| Validout | 99.39% (-0.05%p) |
Results By Parties
| Party | Political Position | Votes | Vote Share | Swing | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | Center-Right | 14,193 | 32.26% | -5.76%p | |
| Labour | Center-Left | 12,402 | 28.19% | -1.71%p | |
| Liberal Democrats | Lean-Left | 6,747 | 15.33% | +12.34%p | |
| Greens | Left-wing | 4,642 | 10.55% | +4.26%p | |
| UK Independence | Far-Right | 3,450 | 7.84% | -6.78%p | |
| Werrington First (RA) | Right (Regionism) | 2,045 | 4.65% | +4.65%p | |
| Independent | Mixed | 202 | 0.46% | -5.05%p | |
| Social Democrats | Center | 187 | 0.43% | +0.43%p | |
| Veterans' & People's | Right (Regionism) | 96 | 0.22% | +0.22%p | |
| Our Nation | Right (Regionism) | 33 | 0.07% | +0.07%p |
=Swing of 2.61% from Conservaties to Labour
*(RA) stands for Residents Association
As Brexit Party registered too late to contest the Local Elections, some pro-Brexiters showed their anger on their ballot paper and besides that, there was also a very-low turnout nationally - around 30%(down more then 20%). Also in Peterborough, the turnout was 33.58%, down 25.08pp. The actual result showed Conservatives & Labour remaining as the biggest parties but down slightly about 1~6%. Oppositely, the pro-remain parties of Lib Dems & Greens increased their support by 4~13%. In the case of UK Independence Party of UKIP - though Brexit Party couldn't fill candidates - they lost almost half of its support. The Residents' Werrington First also gained some grounds, by getting almost 5% of the votes. Independent, Social Democrats, Veterans' & People's Party, Our Nation candidates failed to get over 1% support.
Results of 2019 European Parliament Election in Peterborough Council Area
Turnout & Validout
| Electorate | 121,411 (+-?) |
|---|---|
| Total Votes | 42,494 (-3,809) |
| Turnout | 35.00% (-3.14%p*) |
| Valid Votes | 42,279 (-3,634) |
| Validout | 99.49% (+0.33%p) |
*Estimate based on same number of electorates situated.
Results By Parties
| Party | Political Position | Votes | Vote Share | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brexit | Right-wing | 16,196 | 38.31% | +36.07%p* |
| Labour | Center-Left | 7,272 | 17.20% | -7.90%p |
| Liberal Democrats | Lean-Left | 6,491 | 15.35% | +10.80%p |
| Conservatives | Center-Right | 4,594 | 10.87% | -14.71%p |
| Greens | Left-wing | 4,563 | 10.79% | +5.13%p |
| UK Independence | Far-Right | 1,537 | 3.63% | -29.87%p |
| Change UK - TIG | Center | 1,277 | 3.02% | +3.02%p |
| English Democrats | Right | 284 | 0.67% | -0.46%p |
| Non-Partisan | Mixed | 65 | 0.15% | +0.15%p |
=Swing of 60.82% from Labour to Brexit
=Swing of 11.75% from Conservaties to Labour
=Swing of 69.85% from Conservaties to Brexit
*Compared with the support A Independence From Europe obtained in 2015.
Even though the Brexit Party was on the ballot, the turnout was only 35.00%, up 1.42%p from the Local Election. However on the party-by-party tally, the Brexit Party recevied 38.31% of the valid votes, which is up more then 36% compared with similar-positioned A Independence From Europe and also up about 5% from the UKIP's 2014 figures. Labour, in the other hand, came second - actually going up in status - with 17.20% but down more then 7% in vote share. Liberal Democrats gained 11% support coming back as their past, and oppositely the ruling Conservatives crashed to only 11% - which is very similar with Lib Dems' gained-swing. Another minor party - Greens gained 5% from 2014, coming very-very close to the Conservatives by 0.08%p. They, the Greens actually obtained more then 4% of the votes compared with them. UKIP obviously lost nearly 30% of the support because of Brexit Party's apperance - interestingly which was led by Nigel Farage, the current BP leader. In the case of Change UK and English Democrats, they gained less votes then expected.
Final Results
Turnout & Validout
| Electorate | 70,083 (-1,439) |
|---|---|
| Total Votes | 33,920 (-13,963) |
| Turnout | 48.40% (-18.55%p) |
| Valid Votes | 33,920 (-13,818) |
| Validout | 100.00% (+0.30%p) |
Results By Parties
| Candidate | Party | Political Position | Votes | Vote Share | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lisa Forbes | Labour | Center-Left | 10,484 | 30.91% | -17.16%p |
| Mike Greene | Brexit | Right-wing | 9,801 | 28.89% | +28.89%p |
| Paul Bristow | Conservaties | Center-Right | 7,243 | 21.35% | -25.45%p |
| Beki Sellick | Liberal Democrats | Lean-Left | 4,159 | 12.26% | +8.92%p |
| Joseph Wells | Greens | Left-wing | 1,035 | 3.05% | +1.27%p |
| John Whitby | UK Independence | Far-Right | 400 | 1.18% | +1.18%p |
| Tom Rogers | Christian People's | Right | 162 | 0.48% | +0.48%p |
| Stephen Goldspink | English Democrats | Right | 153 | 0.45% | +0.45%p |
| Patrick O'Flynn | Social Democrats | Center | 135 | 0.40% | +0.40%p |
| Howling Hope | Loony | Big-Tent | 112 | 0.33% | +0.33%p |
| Anderw Moore | Peterborough People's | Right | 101 | 0.30% | +0.30%p |
| Dick Rodgers | Common Good | Right | 60 | 0.18% | +0.18%p |
| Peter Ward | Renew | Center | 45 | 0.13% | +0.13%p |
| Pierre Kirk | UK European Union | Center | 25 | 0.07% | +0.07%p |
| Bobby Smith | Give Me Back Elmo | Right | 5 | 0.01% | +0.01%p |
Many people thought that the Brexit Party could be available to take its first ever House of Commons seat after they carrying-out a victory in United Kingdom European Parliament Elections, especially winning in this area by more then a margin of 20%. But probably because of the Conservaties' better-support - who had a MP for 12 years before 2017. Lisa Forbes, Labour - who narrowly lost to Incumbent Stewart Jackson in 2015 - made a come-back by earning only 683 more votes then her opponent. She received 30.91% of the valid votes, down 17.16%p from 2017. This would still be a good news to them because certainly win is a win especially on marginal seats like here. The Brexit Party's Mike Greene - who defeated George Galloway(former Respect Party Leader & MP) on the party primary - narrowly came second, trailing to Labour. Conservaties came third, protecting the vote share over 20% with Paul Bristow as their candidate. Beki Sellick, the Liberal Democrat increased his support by nearly 10%, now on to 12%. Greens' Joe Wells failed to make up some big gains, but that seems to helped Labour to hold their seat. UKIP filled John Whitby as their candidate, but actually lost 93% of the support, compared with 2015. Christian Peoples' Tom Rogers, English Democrats' Stephen Goldpink, Social Democrats' Patrick O'Flynn, The Official Monster Raving Loony Party's Alan Howling Laud Hope, Peterborough People's Party's Andrew Moore eachly recieved some hundred votes or around 0.5%. Other candidates - including Dick Rodgers, Peter Ward, Pierre Kirk and Bobby Smith only made some tiny gains. Overall, this election result seems to will either hugely or smally impact UK's future and Voting Intention of each parties for the next general elecition.
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